Segregation, Disinvestment and Decline

Now that we are in a century of unprecedented urbanization, much of the literature related to cities, makes use of the phrase "if present trends continue". For example, "if present trends continue, sometime early next century more than half of the world's population will be classified as urban rather than rural" (David Harvey, writing in 1997). This prediction proved to be accurate. Hollander and Nemeth discuss the forces behind population decline, which variously include globalisation, suburbanization and the natural economic cycle. I’m particularly interested in the cyclical idea. Though there is little doubt that Detroit is a shrinking city, it has been a shrinking city for over half a century now. Though the future certainly does look bleak if present trends continue, there are many examples of cities that have turned around despite similarly bleak predictions, such as Seattle thanks to a whim of Bill Gates. If we had a crystal ball to look into future of rust belt cities, I wonder whether the first nature advantages that became redundant in the 20th Century might prove to be drawcards once more, as climate change threatens powerful coastal cities such as New York. It is important to remember that whilst Detroit may be shrinking, it is also persisting.